@Article{Ran2022,
author="Ran, Youhua
and Cheng, Guodong
and Dong, Yuanhong
and Hjort, Jan
and Lovecraft, Amy Lauren
and Kang, Shichang
and Tan, Meibao
and Li, Xin",
title="Permafrost degradation increases risk and large future costs of infrastructure on the Third Pole",
journal="Communications Earth {\&} Environment",
year="2022",
month="Oct",
day="13",
volume="3",
number="1",
pages="238",
abstract="The damage to infrastructure caused by near-surface permafrost degradation is directly related to the well-being of 10 million people and the sustainable development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Third Pole of the Earth. Here we identify the economic damage caused by permafrost degradation to infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau by integrating data-driven projection, multihazard index, and lifespan replacement model. We found that additional cost of approximately {\$}6.31 billion will be needed to maintain the service function of current infrastructure under the historical scenario (SSP245) by 2090. While 20.9{\%} of these potential costs can be saved with strategic adaptations. Controlling global warming to below 1.5{\thinspace}{\textdegree}C will reduce the costs by {\$}1.32 billion relative to the 2{\thinspace}{\textdegree}C target of Paris Agreement. These findings highlight the importance of mitigating global warming and of investment in the adaptation and maintenance of infrastructure on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which has a sparse population but is a climate hotspot.",
issn="2662-4435",
doi="10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6",
url="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00568-6"
}